Opportunity in the Crisis?

MUX traded yesterday at 63 cents:

mux200313

 

The last time that MUX traded at 63 cents was in the week of October 27, 2008:

mux081027

 

MUX then got up to $9.43 in the week of April 4, 2011 (1,397% gain in under 2.5 years – a 195% annual gain):

mux110411

 

MUX got down to 65 cents in the week of July 20, 2015:

mux150720

 

MUX then got up to $4.74 in the week of July 4, 2016 (a 629% annual gain):

mux160714

 

I had to reallocate a bit toward MUX yesterday:

mux200313buys

Cheap and Quick Defeat of COVID-19

The headlines do alarm me, so I now have a modest stockpile of canned food and water. I will go to Costco this morning, and fill my cart with toilet paper and more water. Maybe you ought to do the same.

COVID-19 seems to have a death rate of about two percent. It harms children less and older adults more. In any case, politicans everywhere are taking action to show how much they care. Somebody somewhere will eventually announce a vaccine and a lot of people will celebrate (especially the maker of the vaccine that the politicians approve). Make of it what you will, but I would rather lick the street in Wuhan than accept a COVID-19 vaccine.

So why read on? Because I did once expose myself to a terrible biohazard, became terribly sick, and took a cheap and painless remedy that allowed me to recover in just three hours.

Through 2010, I was a typical believer in vaccines and accepted the recommendations. Through 2012, I got influenza from time to time and had to spend a few hours barfing and a couple of days groaning in pain. I used to think that was normal.

By 2012, I had wised up and followed the podcasts of a “Robert Scott Bell.” I became familiar with the ability of colloidal silver to thwart microbial infections, and I purchased this product:
https://www.amazon.com/Sovereign-Silver-Bio-Active-Hydrosol-Support/dp/B00OTZK0Z2/ref=sr_1_6?crid=1L4IDQY6022V3&keywords=sovereign+silver+colloidal+silver&qid=1583064645&sprefix=soveriegn+silver%2Caps%2C152&sr=8-6

In 2012, I began to feel the influenza digging its claws into me one last time. I began to lose energy. My muscles began to ache. I became very sensitive to hot and cold water in the shower. I was dreading spending the next two days in agony. So I tried the colloidal silver. I filled half my mouth with it and held it under my tongue for thirty seconds to get the silver into my lymphatic system, then swallowed it. I did not have much hope, but thought that Robert Scott Bell could be right.

Three hours later, I couldn’t believe it. I felt like I had travelled forward in time by two days. I was still weak, but realized that I had skipped the worst of the influenza. I have not gotten influenza since 2012, probably because I have avoided vaccines since 2010.

But colloidal silver would save me one more time in 2013 in a bigger way. In 2013, I drove a dumpster truck and got stuck in a muddy trash dump on a cold, rainy day:

I brought no rain protection because I expected that blasting the heater would keep me warm. BIG ROOKIE MISTAKE. The heater fan broke. I spent the day in trash dumps cold and shivering. I was unhappy, but not miserable just yet. The misery would come in the following days as the effect of my exposure to the trash dumps became apparent.

WARNING: The following description is biological and a bit embarassing for me, but I tell you to save yourself from the same embarassment.

So after my exposure to the trash, I felt the beginnings of influenza setting in again. My muscles ached like I expected, but I experienced a new symptom: I became very sensitive to the smell of chemicals. I used a towel that was clean, but was cleaned in a cheap chemical detergent. The chemicals made me feel even sicker. I think my sensitivity to chemicals at that time is what pregnant women experience.

Then I barfed liked I expected. Then I got diahhrea like I did not expect. My muscle aches got so bad, that I considered going to a hospital. I had never considered going to a hospital before for an infection, but this time I was. This is saying a lot for a guy like me who not only fears spending money on the American health care system, but also fears the effects of antibiotics.

The sympoms set in quickly and painfully, but I decided to delay a trip to the hospital in order to give the colloidal silver a chance to work. It worked. Three hours later, I got the pleasant surprise that I got in 2012. I felt like I had travelled two days into the future. My muscle aches eased significantly and I stopped barfing. I was still very weak and would not regain my strength for a few days. But here is the disgusting part: SPONTANEOUS AND SUDDEN AND UNSSTOPPABLE DIAHRREA.

During my recovery on two different occasions, the stuff just oozed out voluminously even though I clenched as hard as I could. Luckily, I was close to a bathroom both times and was not wearing expensive clothing.

So I recommend colloidal silver before COVID-19 gets to you. If it works for you, please share, like, follow, and comment.

COVID-19 harms lungs, but you can use a nebulizer to get colloidal silver in there. Colloidal silver and a nebulizer has helped my children when they suffered from a severe cough.

Also, I must tell you that colloidal silver has helped us only in cases that are SEVERE. It does not help with minor ailments like sniffles.

How Surely Does Gold Retain Value?

Anyone who espouses the ability of gold to retain purhcasing power likely relays rumors that the quantity of gold necessary to purchase items thousands of years ago is close to the quantity of gold necessary to purchase similar items today.  The most dramatic presentation of this point that I know is in this video:

But why should anyone rely on an animation?  Why should anyone rely on merely what other people relay?

Ideally, I would like to travel back to Roman times and personally witness purchases made with gold.  The ideal of time travel will likely never become real, so I would like to rely on the closest thing to time travel that is real.

Edward Gibbon in the 18th century published books about Rome based on documents dating back to ancient Rome.  Later researchers of ancient Rome commended the depth and accuracy of Gibbon’s work:

gibbonwikipedia

After more than 200 years of scrutiny, Gibbon’s observations remain mostly untoppled.  In one of his writings, he observed on page 12 that “[t]he emperor Domitian raised the annual stipend of the legionaries to twelve pieces of gold, which, in his time, was equivalent to about ten of our guineas.

gibbonlegionarypay

 

The guinea . . . was a coin of approximately one quarter ounce of gold . . .

goldguineacoin

 

So the Roman army (the most powerful of its time) paid each new legionary 2.5 ounces of gold per year.  As of Jan. 3, 2020; this annual payment equals US$1,552.24 per ounce x 2.5 ounces = US$3,880.60.

The U.S. army (the most powerful of its time) pays its new recruits US$20,170.80 per year:

usarmypay

So the U.S. army has to pay its new recruits ( US$20,170.80 / US$3,880.60 ) 5.2 times as much gold as the Roman Empire paid its new recruits.  In other words, gold in A.D. 2020 employs 80% fewer soldiers than it did in A.D. 96 when the reign of Domitian ended.  Doubters of gold might use this observation to show how gold fails as a store of value.  Proponents of gold might counter with the possibility that gold is 5.2 times more plentiful outside the trading range of the Roman Empire than inside.

So what is my point?  Even if you believe that gold lost 80% of its purchasing power in the last 1,924 years, the annual depreciation of gold in terms of soldier employment has declined by only
(1 – (1 – .80)^(1/1924)) * 100%
= (1 – (.2)^(1/1924)) * 100%
= (1 – (.2)^(.00052)) * 100%
= (1 – .99916) * 100%

= 0.084%

If a 0.084% annual depreciation is not a near-perfect store of value, then what is?

 

Anyone Want These Free Bags of Cash?

2018 so far has been disheartening for most commodity stocks.  The commodity stocks that the Horg family owns have declined by even more.  My investment performance since 2006 has declined to an average annual increase of 10.5% (beating all U.S. stock markets, pension funds, and college endowments by just a few percentage points per year).

2009Q1 was an even worse time for everyone not holding assets tied to the value of the U.S. dollar.  Like most, my investment performance had gone negative.  Many sold in the belief that stocks follow the laws of physics and that momentum would drive their stocks ever lower.  I sold, too, but for different reasons.  I saw and still see the stock market not as a mass with momentum, but as a giant Ouija board that fluctuates randomly around fundamental values.  I sold not to join the mass run into U.S. dollars.  I sold simply whatever went down the least in order to buy whatever went down the most.  In other words, I rebalanced.  I recovered, prospered, and started Three-Year Double.

2015 was THE WORST YEAR for my investment performance.  I had moved one hundred percent into gold stocks in February, 2014. 2015 was demonic for gold stocks.  I scoured through every document and video that I could find wondering what the problem was.  I wondered if somebody had genetically modified a goose to lay a golden egg.  I became aware that the ocean contains a lot of gold that had been uneconomic to extract, but I wondered also if somebody had genetically modified microbes to collect ocean gold economically.  I found the concentration of gold in ocean water and calculated that even if microbes could separate gold from ocean water at zero cost, the energy cost to transport the separated gold to a collection point far exceeded the market price of the gold.

2018 has not been nearly as bad for me as 2009 and 2015 were.  But in one regard, 2018 has produced its own brand of insanity.  The Horg family now owns six stocks.  Three of these six stocks (KRLTF, WTRNF, and NWLNF) are now priced below current assets net of all liabilities:

howibeatgold181103a

 

One of these stocks (KRLTF) is now priced below CASH net of all liabilities:

howibeatgold181103b

 

Even in the depths of the 2015 gold stock bear market, I knew of no stock priced below current assets, let alone cash, net of all liabilities.  The stock that came closest to this level of insanity was Northern Freegold.  Below is part of an exchange I had comparing the cash of Northern Freegold to the cash of Kaminak Gold:

stockhouse150821

 

Kaminak Gold went on to do well and Goldcorp took it over.  Northern Freegold went on to do even better, and Goldcorp took it over as well.

Let Them Eat Platinum!

Robert Mugabe is a misunderstood genius.  His management of Zimbabwe’s economy did ruin production of food, but did wonders for production of platinum.

Slide 24 in this Japanese government document shows Zimbabwe platinum production growing from 7 kg in 1996 to 6,489 kg in 2009:

platinumjapan

 

Table 5 in this U.S. government document shows platinum production continuing to grow in Zimbabwe from 6,849 kgs in 2009 to 11,000 kgs in 2012:

platinumusa

 

Page 5 in this Zimbabwean government document shows platinum production continuing to grow to over 12,000 kgs in 2015:

platinumzimbabwe

 

Have any of Mugabe’s naysayers ever tried tasting platinum?  It’s yummy!

Potash: How Undervalued Can One Commodity Get?

Potash in February, 2017 hit its lowest price in terms of U.S. dollars since September, 2007:

potashdollarlow

 

But potash seven months later in September, 2017 hit its lowest price in terms of gold in over thirty years and has since bounced back only 3.32%:

potashgoldgraph

 

Click here to get the raw data that I got from indexmundi.com and looks like this:

potashgoldrawdata

 

 

Why I Seek No Compensation

Why I Seek No Compensation for Investment Advice, and Why You Should Not Offer Compensation for Investment Advice:

If you lack confidence in your ability to manage your own investments, then I think that you should get an ETF based on an index.  If you cannot competently choose your own investments, then you surely cannot competently choose the person to choose your investments.

What ETFs to purchase? I recommend RSP, VB, and VSS.

 

Western Resources Trading for Less Than Cash Net of Liabilities

Would you pay forty-one dollars for a bag of fifty-four one-dollar bills?  Western Resources is the bag.

Western Resources as of December 31, 2017 had current assets of C$55,036,237 and total liabilities of only C$567,127. See page 3 of the FINANCIAL STATEMENTS at SEDAR:

wtrnfbalancesheet171231

Western Resources is split into Shares Outstanding of 93,437,110 and Stock Options Outstanding of 930,000.  So the fully diluted shares would be 93,437,110 + 930,000 = 94,367,110:

wtrnfsharesoutstanding170930

So the current assets net of all liabilities per share would be (C$55,036,237 – C$567,127) / (94,367,110 shares) = C$0.5772.  Current assets is a balance sheet account that represents the value of all assets that can reasonably expect to be converted into cash within one year:

investopediacurrentassets

Western Resources as of February 16, 2018 was selling for C$0.43 per share:

wtrnfstockhouse180216

or (C$0.43 per share) x (94,367,110 shares) = C$40,557,857 for the whole company.

So C$40,557,857 gets you (C$55,036,237 – C$567,127) = C$54,569,110 cash net of liabilities.

BUT THAT’S NOT ALL!  YOU ALSO GET . . .

a potash deposit determined by a feasibility study to be worth C$2.44 billion AFTER-TAX:

wtrnffeasibilitystudy

Do insiders own any shares?  Yes, they do.  The corporate presentation on page 3 shows that “Strategic Investors hold approx. 65.8% of the company’s outstanding shares”:

wtrnfinsiders

And Rio Tinto will be very cooperative:

wtrnfriotinto1of2

wtrnfriotinto2of2